ABSTRACT
The middle class is usually perceived as a main supporter of innovations, source of political stability, and core consumer of goods and services. As a result, its members are traditionally supposed to have high human potential and make a significant contribution to economic growth both in certain country and all over the world, which permanently generates great interest in the issues concerning middle class. However, the main research questions have changed significantly over the last years. The experts both in Russia and abroad highlight the factors that negatively influence the position of the middle class. These are changes in labor market, price growth that outruns the growth of income, increase of tax burden and problems with access to public goods. During COVID-19 pandemic the income has fallen, the risks of unemployment have increased, and the costs of healthcare also have grown. The scholars in different countries underline similar tendencies: middle-class members, who already had to live in an ambiguous world, faced the risks of falling into poverty during the corona crisis. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitor Survey, we evaluate the tracks of middle-class families during 2014-2020 and demonstrate that the problem of poverty affects a part of this social stratum every year. But the share of middle-class members with the income below the poverty line is relatively low and remains largely unaffected by the current corona crisis. © 2023 National Research University Higher School of Economics. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The role of social protection in supporting people’s well-being, reducing poverty and inequality is difficult to overestimate in stable times, but its importance increases especially in times of crisis, as confirmed by the global shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the conditions of increasing uncertainty, a social protection system turns into a “safety cushion” — a macroeconomic and socio-political stabilizer. The purpose of the article is to show, based on the analysis of the main trends in the development of the Russian social protection system and considering the challenges of the current moment, possible alternative choices in its development in the mid-term period. Authors use a broad definition of the social protection system, which includes non-contributory measures of social protection (social assistance), contributory and non-contributory pensions, minimum wages, and social services (long-term care). The article contributes to the literature on economics and public administration, which focuses on social policy in times of economic crises. The article discusses the turn in social protection associated with the adoption of the national development goals in 2018. The authors analyze to what extent has the coronavirus pandemic affected the main challenges and problems facing Russian social protection;what were the key decisions in the field of anti-crisis support for the population, and how they affected indicators of poverty and inequality. The article also presents recent research results on changes in public attitudes toward social protection as well as issues of using the time-budget as a component of a comprehensive assessment of the population’s quality of life. In conclusion, the article discusses lessons which can be learned from the experience of the pandemic-related crisis for the future development of the Russian social protection system, including in the conditions of turbulence that have arisen in 2022. © 2022, Russian Presidental Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
The paper is devoted to the quantitative assessment and analysis of changes in income and poverty in the Russian Federation during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to mitigate a certain decline in the financial conditions of households derived from the lockdown shock on the labor market, the federal government adopted a set of income support measures mainly addressed to families with children and officially registered unemployed. The study aims to quantify the impact of these new long-term and short-term cash transfers on average income and poverty rate for the entire population as well as across different categories of households. The two-stage microsimulation modeling is based on the data of the Statistical Survey of Income and Participation in Social Programs, annually conducted by Rosstat. The estimates show that the additional cash transfers accounted for about 15% and 35% mitigation of the decrease in average income and the increase of the poverty rate, respectively, compared to the levels at the start of 2020. It is found that families with children aged between 3 and 7 were likely to benefit most from the support measures, which almost totally prevented the growth of poverty in this category of households. Conversely, the positive impact was minimal for families with children over 7 years and negligibly small for families without children. Informal workers also fell outside the scope of federal anti-crisis social policy tools. So, for these three population categories, the aggravated problems of income reduction and rising poverty remained unresolved. The findings of the study also confirm that the universal and temporary cash transfers are much less effective in income support and curbing the growth of poverty even among recipients © 2021,Ekonomicheskaya Politika.All Rights Reserved